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Ouch. On one hand, the nation's long-running bid to host the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.

It campaigned for over 36 months for the rights to host the largest global climate summit and sustainable business expo, which would have attracted tens of thousands of people to the South Australian capital next November.

This won't occur. Rather, the summit known as Cop31 is moving to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Letdown and Mixed Messages

The result will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had hoped organizing the environmental gathering could help accelerate Australia's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring global attention to the survival crisis facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been co-hosts.

The procedure that led to failure has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been doubts that the prime minister and other senior figures truly desired the proposal to be approved. His statements were ambiguous at best. It translated to reports in the Australian and international media saying the government was withdrawing.

This differed from the communication being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the Brazilian city, where the Australian climate change minister, Chris Bowen, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Ambiguous backing is a recurring problem for the hosting proposal. While Bowen championed it, other high-level figures of the government have only occasionally appeared to care.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for international climate negotiations, has been disengaged and sometimes completely against.

Evidence suggests Albanese has viewed international climate meetings a important focus. He hasn't attended one since becoming prime minister in 2022. We'll never know, but some will wonder if additional efforts were possible to get the bid over the line.

An Alternative View

That's one interpretation. But there is another way to look at it.

Considering the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the decision on this week may, ironically, have been the best result possible.

Bowen set out on that day an novel agreement that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the Cop president, organizer and effective event manager, and Australia – Bowen himself – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", managing almost all nations on the matters that the nations actually attend for – the talks on how to collectively combat the environmental emergency.

There would also be a greater focus on the Pacific, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.

Reasons for Doubt

There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. The two nations do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been completed at the time of writing. The whole thing could collapse before it begins.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what looked like an impending disaster for the international cooperation on global warming.

The Turkish government is generally viewed in the international community as having been determined on creating disruption in the international climate negotiations. This framework is supposed to work by consensus. Typically, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a deal is privately arranged to persuade them to step aside.

Turkey clearly had less support than the joint Pacific proposal to organize the summit. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for selecting next year's venue had backed the Australian bid.

But, uniquely, Turkey declined to withdraw. The term "disruption" has been thrown around in the past week, and not only by Australians.

International Dynamics

Turkey's obstinacy can be interpreted as a manifestation of the divided international landscape. With the US absent under Donald Trump, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to confront the petroleum exporters that offered the Turkish government with certain protection.

The Turkish president is seen as close to the Russian leader. Several nations worried about a conference hindered from the top if his government led the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to host an unprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in Bonn, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the deadlock wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A path through was necessary. The UN system is flawed and often unsettling to observe, but global cooperation has demonstrably made a difference in the fight against global heating. This joint approach is a innovative solution that maintains progress when it is most crucial.

Despite reasonable concerns of the Australian government over its hypocritical support for expanding carbon-based exports, climate activists who participate in UN conferences see the minister as a positive influence in the talks. He has been requested to lead negotiation streams at multiple summits he has participated in.

This matters. Although some have dismissed the importance of a "president of negotiations", specialists from academic institutions and experienced analysts at climate talks say it is crucial to their positive outcome.

"Each effective summit has been determined by a leader holding the pen who can understand, forge agreement and deliver an ambitious outcome. This occurred in Berlin in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. The reverse happened in the Danish city in 2009," he says. "It's the most important role at the conference other than making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

Multiple unanswered questions. As an illustration, non-governmental organizations is essential at environmental summits. What, if at all, can the federal administration do to stop a crackdown on civil society by the host government?

Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this arrangement appearing as the best chance possible to have a summit that may provide benefits for the Pacific region, Australia and the world. It's worth a try.