Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
