Starmer's Allies Initiate 'Halt Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Comeback
Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a coordinated initiative to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to parliament. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an impending byelection.
Significant Barriers in the Candidate Selection Process
Multiple figures on the party's ruling NEC have apparently predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is largely due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are anxious to head off any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour hierarchy is said to have sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Previously, he caused outrage in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the Labour leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly stand for the party leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Political Landscape and Poll Ratings
Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole senior Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.
Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.
Efforts to Block Burnham
High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
A number of sources also shared concerns about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.
Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. There is also speculation the committee could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.
Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.
The trade unions occupy a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The seat in question holds a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a significant challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a requirement that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.
The departing MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.
