Is the Entertainment Fading? The Decline of Open-Play Goal Scoring
A major talking point of the Premier League season so far has been the reduction of scoring in open-play scenarios and how teams are netting increasingly from set-pieces as an alternative.
Looking at scoring methods to matchday 11 last season, we note 39 fewer goals in open-play and 26 more from set-plays and penalties, giving us 13 less altogether.
Considering the broader view, shot attempts sides are producing reveal a remarkable 370 fewer in open play than at this stage last time out.
Even with the notable jump in dead-ball scores, we've actually seen just two more shots created from them outside of spot-kicks, demonstrating the proficiency clubs are at finding ways to score from dead-ball chances.
Scoring Rates Reveal a Story
301 total goals notched in the first 110 fixtures so far calculates at 2.74 goals each match, which if it continued for the entire campaign could be the lowest for half a decade, from five seasons ago (2.69 per game).
But just 196 scores coming in open play translates to 1.78 each match and is heading to be the smallest for since 2009-10, from 16 years ago (1.76 per game).
The 2009-10 season also marks the only Premier League campaign to see goals scored more frequently from non-penalty set-pieces than the current rate of 0.77 per game (0.79).
Which Sides Account for This Change?
Regarding goals scored from open play, Wolverhampton Wanderers have seen the largest decline, registering a mere four in their first 11 fixtures, 10 fewer than at this stage the previous campaign.
Outside of Wolverhampton, the EPL's decline in goals from open play is very much a trend among London clubs, with five out of the London's seven clubs scoring at least five fewer goals from open-play than the prior season.
To be fair, this is mainly because them netting numerous scores at the beginning of last season instead of them really struggling to score in open-play this season.
Meanwhile Manchester City have recorded the most significant jump, with nearly all of the 23 they've scored to date coming in open-play.
Set-Piece Success
We've compared the promoted teams with the teams that went down they took the place of. Play-off winners Sunderland have scored an additional three scores in open play than the Saints achieved in their opening 11 matches leading to the drop the previous campaign.
When it comes to goals scored from dead-ball situations (excluding penalties), the Gunners and the Blues have experienced the most significant jump, with both sides compensating for the five less scores that they've produced in open-play with the same number from dead-ball chances.
United have netted two times more goals from set-pieces as they did in matchday 11 the previous campaign prior to Ruben Amorim assumed control, while Sunderland again are more effective at scoring than the club they replaced that went down.
Manchester City don't seem to have got the trend about scoring more from set-pieces, since they've netted three fewer than the previous campaign, similar to Nottingham Forest, although this could be because of the altered approach they're working to install.
General Tendencies
Six sides – Arsenal, Chelsea, Fulham, Newcastle, Tottenham and the Hammers – represent this season's top trend-setters by scoring fewer goals from open-play and additional from set-pieces, while Manchester City are the only side to buck the trend up to now by doing the contrary.
It will be fascinating to observe if sides persist to rely so heavily on set-pieces as the campaign progresses or if they rediscover their general attacking flair and start netting more goals in open-play also.