From Reluctant Respect to Unease: Moscow Considers the Ousting of Venezuela's Leader.

A surprise raid against the capital city in the dead of night, ending with the capture of the country's president. By the next morning, the intervening power declares its intention to govern for an indefinite period.

That was the scenario Vladimir Putin imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine playing out in early 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a move labeled illegal internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

Officially, Russian officials have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of international law and a worrying development. Yet beyond the official statements, there is a feeling of grudging respect – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Moscow itself once planned, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The mission was executed with precision,” wrote the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was supposed to proceed: fast, dramatic and conclusive. It’s hard to believe [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be fighting for four years.”

These observations have fueled a atmosphere of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly war.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “embarrassment” on behalf of her country given how brazen the American action appeared to be. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and apparently concluded his own 'military mission,’” she stated.

Allies in Decline

For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – hoping to helping to shape a alternative bloc able to challenge Washington.

Yet despite Russia's foreign minister pledging support for the Caracas government as recently as late December, hardly any experts ever believed Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other key allies lose influence or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – laying bare the limits of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the circumstances are profoundly awkward,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with little choice but to express outrage. Yet providing any tangible support to a country so far away is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

There is also a deeper strategic consideration. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with Trump on that front far outweighs the destiny of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a broader geopolitical contest with a critical partner over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Nevertheless, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including advanced Russian-made systems.

Those include S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: American control over Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'partners' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Still, some in Moscow see room for a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the post-war global system and usher in a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where might, rather than rules, determines results.

“The US administration is tough and cynical in advancing its country's interests,” wrote Russia's former president with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is clearly more powerful than ordinary justice.”