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Initially, Donald Trump appeared to take a strong stance regarding the Ukrainian conflict. After delivering statements of "severe consequences" last August should Putin carried on hindering ceasefire negotiations, the former president eventually imposed major penalties on the Russian two largest oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft. This decision substantially hindered Putin's ability to support his aggression in the region.

But, through his newly presented comprehensive peace initiative for Ukraine, that was drafted by US and Russian officials excluding Ukrainian or European involvement, the former president has seemingly gone back to his pro-Putin position.

Favoring Aggression

This plan would in practice favor the Russian leader for occupying Ukraine while leaving the country's democratic system in peril. Although bold declarations that "Ukraine's sovereignty will be upheld", much of the initiative effectively compromise that same autonomy. This constitutes a Moscow's wish would likely be a catastrophe for the nation.

Reflecting his real-estate background, Trump persists to consider the Ukrainian conflict as a basic border issue, as if ceding Putin a portion of Ukrainian land will satisfy the president. Yet, Putin's invasion is not only about dominating a destroyed swath of industrial-devastated territory in eastern Ukraine. Instead, it's about Ukraine's democratic governance – and Putin's obvious intention to destroy it so it stops functions as an enticing standard for the Russia's population of the accountable leadership that Putin's growing autocracy withholds them.

Territorial Surrenders

Although maintaining in status the currently divided Ukrainian provinces of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Trump's plan would require the nation to abandon the whole Donetsk province. Beyond rewarding Russia with area that its forces have been failed to capture in exceeding a lengthy period of warfare, this surrender would leave Ukrainian military defenses severely weakened.

Donetsk is the place of Ukraine's much-vaunted "stronghold system", the entrenched military defenses that represent a critical barrier to Russian advances. The proposal would have Ukraine abandon these defenses, providing Russian forces a unobstructed route to Kyiv should he subsequently decide to renew the conflict.

Military Limitations

Furthermore, in a action that would enable additional conflict simpler for the Russian military, Trump would mandate Ukraine to cut the size of its armed forces from their existing approximately 800,000 soldiers to a limit of this lower number. Notably, the proposal places no similar restrictions on Russia's military.

In what appears as a gesture to Putin's attempts to characterize Ukraine's legitimate leadership as extremists, Trump's proposal asserts: "Any Nazi doctrine and practices must be condemned and prohibited." As if to underscore this aspect, it insists that "Ukraine will hold elections in three months" of a truce. However, Trump imposes no requirement that Putin jeopardize his dictatorship by holding democratic processes in his own country.

Security Assurances

Certainly, the proposal makes the Russian Federation pledge not to "invade bordering nations" and to "establish in law its stance of non-aggression towards Europe and Ukraine". Yet given that Putin has broken comparable accords in the past – including the Budapest accord, in which Russia committed to recognize the nation's borders in exchange for giving up its former Soviet atomic arms, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Russia agreed to a halt in fighting and a return of occupied territory in the region to the government – for what reason should we believe this commitment now?

This explains Ukraine has been so insistent on western protection assurances. While the plan promises a "immediate unified defense action" in case Russia resume its invasion, and provides that "Ukraine will receive dependable security guarantees", the particulars include unclear to alarming. The plan would not just deny Ukraine accession to NATO but also prohibit alliance nations from deploying military personnel on Ukraine's soil, thus blocking the reassurance force, reportedly commanded by the UK and France, on which Ukraine had been depending to deter Putin from replenishing his reduced troops, rearming, and attacking again.

World Reaction

A separate side agreement according to sources would grant Ukraine with a alliance-like protection assurance, in which any later "major, deliberate, and continuous military assault" by the Russian Federation on the country "would be considered as an attack jeopardizing the tranquility of the Western nations." This indicates a military response. But unlike a capable Ukrainian military – Ukraine's best defense against renewed hostilities – the credibility of the supplementary deal would depend on the willingness of alliance members, including Trump, to react through arms to Russia's hostilities, something they have {not