Day-to-Day Homicides in Mexico Drop Thirty-Seven Percent Under the Sheinbaum Administration, As per Government Figures

The mean count of everyday murders each month in the country has decreased by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, according to fresh government figures. However, security analysts have advised that murder data could fail to point to improved countrywide safety.

Notable Reduction in Per-Day Figures

Officials reported an average of almost 55 homicides a day in last November versus roughly 87 when Sheinbaum began the leadership in September of last year. This data was delivered by the chief of the nation's national safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The outcome in killings that we have seen in these past months is remarkably notable,” the President stated, noting that the previous month the lowest number of murders were recorded for any November in the last 10 years.

Historical Context and Government Strategy

Fierce organized crime internal conflicts, alongside the administration's highly militarised operations to take on the cartels, have made Mexico’s homicide rate rise sharply in the past few years. The rate peaked at a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the nation's national statistics agency.

That resulted in Mexico a murder figure over 4x greater than the United States. From that point, killings have been on the decline, dropping to 33,550 the previous year. Sheinbaum has credited her public safety plan for an ostensibly steeper decline in homicides in the current year.

At a media briefing in the summer, the President said: “We have a plan, we have tracking of the strategy, and we have specific tracking municipality by municipality in certain cases. The approach works. And we have to continue working at it every day.”

The central components of Sheinbaum’s safety plan involve:

• Strengthening Mexico’s national guard.
• Improving intelligence and investigation capabilities.
• Greater cooperation between various authorities.

Analyst Warnings and Data Limitations

Nevertheless, public safety experts cautioned that using murder statistics to paint a picture of peace was misleading. This is especially true in light of the increase in other crimes such as people going missing.

“It would be positive information if this were a decrease, but I think we shouldn't just concentrate on the homicide data and conclude: ‘Oh well, excellent,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican organised crime. “I would be cautiously optimistic.”

According to the public policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total declined by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year relative to the same timeframe the previous year. But, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in some states have risen by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on murders is not valid for estimating the situation of insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who do not have the ability or the will to correctly identify and classify corpses. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the means to conceal violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas noted that relying on month-to-month averages of everyday homicides was also concerning because it could mask days when there were notably elevated levels of killings.

“Using the daily average makes spikes of violent crime less visible,” he stated.

Arrests and Confiscations as Metrics of Progress

An area where the government can point to the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on arrests and seizures. Close to 40,000 suspects were apprehended between last October and November 2025 for high-impact crimes, per official figures. Over 20,000 weapons were taken and 311 tons of narcotics confiscated.

“Donald Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because actually she is doing a lot with these thousands of arrests, thousands of seizures, and all the tactical degrading of criminal groups. It’s very politically beneficial,” said Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Public Frustration

Yet notwithstanding these efforts, Mexico is still beset by severe violence, with several regions in the throes of cartel-driven conflict. Last month there was a prominent killing of a well-liked local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors killed in the last 12 months.

Weeks after, many thousands of youth demonstrated in Mexico City and throughout the nation to express their anger at graft and cartel violence.

“The government shares [data] in a way to construct a story of improvement. Politically it’s extremely successful, from a social perspective it’s extremely debatable,” Vargas concluded.