Beyond this Ceremony of Putin's Delhi Visit: The India-Russia Bond That Has Weakened.

This rhetoric and visuals from the Russian President Vladimir Putin's recent official trip to India projected a strong two-way partnership. Prime Minister Narendra Modi greeted Putin at the airport with a embrace, and the leaders shared a car journey, echoing a familiar political gesture. In his address, Modi called Putin as "my friend" and described the India-Russia bond as a "lodestar", built on "shared respect and profound trust" that had "weathered the test of time". This marked Putin's 10th visit to India during his quarter-century rule and his 20th meeting with Modi since the latter took the premiership in 2014.

A Chasm Between Pageantry and Reality

However, a noticeable gap exists between the symbolism and the substance of this relationship. Although Putin vowed "uninterrupted fuel supplies" to India, the country's refiners are actually buying a reduced amount of Russian oil because of external pressure. The two nations concluded a series of memorandums of understanding in areas like mobility, health, food security, maritime cooperation, and educational collaboration. However, anticipated revelations on significant military contracts did not materialize. India has not concluded any major defence purchases with Russia following the 2022's offensive of Ukraine, a trend fueled by holdups in shipments of equipment and components as Moscow prioritizes its own defence requirements.

A Relationship Losing Geopolitical Weight

These developments suggests that the Indo-Russian dynamic no longer carries the same strategic clout it previously did. During the era of superpower rivalry, India enjoyed special barter arrangements and economic entry to the Soviet Union and its satellite states. This unique alliance peaked in 1971 with a Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation, concluded before a conflict with Pakistan where Islamabad was supported by the US and China. While both countries have attempted to preserve a semblance of this special bond through a "unique and elevated" strategic partnership announced in 2010, the reality is that their engagement lacks the former importance as New Delhi has significantly strengthened ties with the Western world.

Broadening and Underlying Contradictions

New Delhi is not expected to sever its important relationship with Moscow. But, as external coercion mounts on India to reduce its purchases of Russian oil, both countries are seeking to diversify the relationship into other sectors. On Putin's trip, they unveiled an economic cooperation programme extending until 2030, aiming to make their ties "broader, balanced and long-lasting". This involves improving entry for Indian products to rectify a trade deficit heavily skewed in Russia's favor. Cooperation between the two covers several strategically important fields – from space and atomic energy to defence and food security.

Sentimental Affinity and Seen Dependability

At an sentimental level, a high degree of closeness with Russia persists, particularly among senior cohorts of policymakers in New Delhi who remember Moscow's crucial role during the Cold War. This has resulted in a certain level of understanding for the Russian viewpoint on the Ukraine war. During ongoing frictions between India and the US, where American officials have issued sharp comments about the Indian economy, many in India view Russia as a more reliable ally.

This challenge, of course, is the continuing war in Ukraine.

The extensive joint statement issued during Putin's India trip contained no mention to Ukraine, despite it ironically described the relationship as an "anchor of global peace and stability". Despite Modi's much-touted assertion that "now is not the era of war", New Delhi's public actions regarding the conflict have been limited.

Navigating the Dilemma: New Delhi's Foreign Policy Balancing Act

This dynamic highlights the underlying contradictions in India's foreign policy. The country is poised to finalize a trade deal with the EU, after a similar agreement with the UK earlier year. On the sidelines, India, Australia, and Canada declared a trilateral technology initiative. There are far more Indian students in the US than in Russia, even as efforts are being made to strengthen people-to-people exchanges between India and Russia.

How will India resolve this complex equation? New Delhi will be hoping that ongoing talks will succeed, leading to a cessation of hostilities and the elimination of a key thorn in its relations with the Western bloc. But, should a settlement is reached, if it fails of a "fair resolution" that upholds Ukraine's sovereignty and borders, critical examination of the Indo-Russian alliance will undoubtedly persist in European and American capitals.