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Whenever the wind flows northwest from Belarus, Lithuania expects problems.

That is when enormous inflatables are dispatched across the border, with boxes of cheap cigarettes dangling beneath.

Over the last two and a half months, this unauthorized aerial activity has caused Lithuania's primary air hub into closure 15 times, affecting thousands of travellers.

On a single instance, the airspace was shut down entirely for a prolonged 11 hours.

However, the authorities are certain they are confronting something much more aggressive than simple smugglers.

They contend the balloons have been "weaponised" in an manifestation of hybrid warfare by Belarus, Moscow's key partner.

Government Action

The Lithuanian administration has announced an state of emergency.

While balloons have been employed by smugglers in the past, their numbers increased dramatically this October.

"Of course it started as organised crime activity, but we've seen more than once how Belarus uses criminal networks to have an effect on adjacent states," a government minister stated.

The official suggested the balloons are sent from locations that help them best disrupt Lithuania's main airport, situated just 30km from the border.

"If you want to conduct a contraband run, you'd do it in the forests or marshes, not directly at our airport!" the minister pointed out.

Instead, there is a belief that the balloons represent a form of political blackmail on Europe's eastern edge.

"This is viewed as a pressure tool: 'You have a border with us, we can cause you {huge problems|significant disruption|major issues'," the official said. "What they're doing is really touching the realm of national security."

Nightly Patrols

Now, every night, security forces head out in the frontier area.

The balloons are most frequent during the night.

Units establish mobile checkpoints on isolated lanes, inspecting drivers' documents and examining vehicles in search of anyone involved to the smuggling networks.

The balloons fly too high to make intercepting them with firearms a viable or cost-effective option.

Consequently, the government has announced a financial incentive to any firm that can figure out how to safely stop them.

In the meantime, teams use military radar to track the balloons and attempt to catch smugglers at the landing sites.

Soon, new legal penalties for aviation disruption should also serve as a preventive measure.

Underlying Aims

The frontier line is now marked by a tall metal fence, with barbed wire and fortifications.

This enhanced fortification is a clear sign of how Lithuania now views its neighbour as adversarial.

Not far away, the long-time ruler of Belarus has dismissed all talk of hybrid warfare as "baseless".

He recently blamed "bandit" smugglers, saying they were simply acting for financial gain and finding innovative ways to overcome the new security fence.

Lithuania is skeptical, partly due to a history of hybrid tactics.

In 2021, migrants were assisted to cross into Lithuania and Poland in large numbers, provoking a deliberate crisis.

"The current pattern involves a sequence of one or two balloons every 30 minutes, aimed directly at the airport," explained a security official.

"{In Belarus... if they were interested in stopping it they could do it tomorrow. But they don't. That implies it benefits them."

The suspicion is that Belarus is trying to bully its way into lifting international restrictions.

"They want to draw diplomatic focus and force us to change our stance on Belarus," is how one minister views the sudden influx of balloons.

The EU does not recognise the Belarusian leader as president following disputed elections in 2020 and a subsequent repression.

Sanctions were imposed then and tightened later when Belarus assisted Russia's war of Ukraine.

"{First, they want to end the international isolation of the regime and number two, of course, the sanctions," the minister argued.

Economic and Social Impact

For now, travellers and airlines are having to adapt.

"This is an unprecedented situation for the aviation sector," stated the airport CEO.

One airline has already relocated its charter flights, and another has cut its evening service.

Revenue losses for all affected businesses are projected to reach €2m by year's end.

"There are direct financial costs, but the even higher risk is if passengers start to lose trust in air travel," he admitted.

Already, travellers consult a dedicated website for wind forecasts and balloon likelihood before booking flights.

"It's stressful, it makes me a little bit nervous. I'd just like to get home as planned," one passenger said.

"We believe this is a form of aggression on us," said a local resident. "I think for them it's really amusing to fly those balloons and then laugh at us."

Her words suggest that another aim of such covert tactics – undermining confidence – is also working, and perhaps harder to defend against.

"This is effectively probing the limits of the alliance: looking at how we respond to these kinds of things," said another citizen.

"And we can't even handle simple balloons. We're not even equipped for the basic stuff."