Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
